Lucky Starters In October
Posted by Steve Lombardi on October 15, 2010
How many pitchers have more than one start in the post-season where they had a Game Score of 50 or less and still ended up with the "W" in the conest?
Here's the answer -
| Rk | Player | #Matching | W | L | GS | CG | SHO | SV | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andy Pettitte | 4 | Ind. Games | 4 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24.2 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 1.46 |
| 2 | David Wells | 3 | Ind. Games | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 5.31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.1 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 1.43 |
| 3 | Jaret Wright | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 1.85 |
| 4 | John Smoltz | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.1 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 1.43 |
| 5 | CC Sabathia | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.91 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 1.64 |
| 6 | Ramon Ortiz | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 6.10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1.94 |
| 7 | Burt Hooton | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.97 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 1.68 |
| 8 | Orlando Hernandez | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 5.68 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 1.74 |
| 9 | Livan Hernandez | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 5.27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.2 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 1.83 |
| 10 | Juan Guzman | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12.0 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1.92 |
| 11 | Tom Glavine | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.76 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 1.59 |
| 12 | Freddy Garcia | 2 | Ind. Games | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 4.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1.80 |
.
Maybe we should call these types of games "Woodies"? After all, it was Woody Allen who once said "Eighty percent of success is showing up."
October 15th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
8 of these 27 came for a pitcher pitching for the Yankees... and at least another 2 came against them... although, being in the playoffs (almost) every year of the wild card era gives them quite a few more games to 'achive' this.
October 15th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
Too bad Freddy Garcia wasn't good enough in the 2007 regular season to get a chance at this again that year.
I had forgotten that he wore #34 during his brief stint with the Phillies. The Phillies seem to like to give that number to their would-be ace: Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Cliff Lee, and now Roy Halladay. It looks like they're getting better at it.
October 15th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
How about the reverse of this? Has anybody ever put up better numbers than Derek Lowe did this year and lose two games in one series?
(Challenge 1: Define "better numbers")
October 15th, 2010 at 9:08 pm
I don't know how to post it, but using PI I found there have been 16 instances where a pitcher lost with a game score of at least 75, of which 3 were over 80.
The list is topped by Mike Cuellar's 11-inning complete game 2-1 loss in Game 3 of the '73 ALCS, with a score of 84. The winning pitcher in that game, Ken Holtzman, also threw an 11-inning complete game and had a game score of 93. The only extra-inning complete game in the postseason from that day to this was Jack Morris in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series; I expect at least one tomorrow in Philadelphia.
October 15th, 2010 at 10:41 pm
I think it was pathetic that fat Livan Hernandez was given the MVP of the World Series in 1997 with an ERA that high. Charles Johnson deserved it far more.
October 16th, 2010 at 4:04 am
Ramon Ortiz caught my eye - he was a strange one. Somehow went 15-9 with a 3.77 ERA in 2002 despite giving up a league high 40 HR. Then in the postseason he had an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP >2.00 but still finished 2-0 and got a world series ring!!
October 16th, 2010 at 8:01 am
Like most of his oft-noted postseason numbers, Pettitte's "lucky win" count stems mainly from repeated opportunities. His 41 postseason starts are 6 more than any other pitcher, and more than twice the 10th-highest total.
As for the specific games, the context tells a slightly different story than the Game Score:
-- Two came against the 2000 and 2001 Mariners, who averaged 5.60 and 5.72 RPG, respectively.
-- Two were against the 2009 Phillies, the NL leader in scoring and HRs.
-- The Mariners games were both Quality Starts: 6.2 IP, 2 runs (2000) and 6.1 IP, 3 runs (2001). In each, he allowed 1 walk and no HRs.
-- In the 2001 game, which wound up as his 2nd ALCS defeat of the 116-win M's (and clinched the series), Pettitte carried a 3-hit shutout and a 9-0 lead into the 7th, before being chased by 5 straight singles.
I'm not a Pettitte apologist, so I'll add that he never took a postseason loss with a Game Score over 63. And just 2 of his 9 postseason losses were Quality Starts.
October 16th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Plus, in Pettitte's case, a 4.38 ERA will usually result in a Yankee win.
In Hooten's case, letting up only 5 runs in 11+ IP is the main factor. Getting out of jams isn't as much luck as it is skill. It may ruin your pitching score except for the W.
October 16th, 2010 at 10:37 am
[...] Steve's post on pitchers with Game Scores under 50 in the post-season got me wondering, so I did some quick math. [...]
October 16th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Pettitte's postseason record is both underrated and overrated to some degree--depends on what parts you want to cherry-pick. He's had his really bad games, but he's also had several really good games, particularly earlier in his career. Since 2003 however, Pettitte is 9-2 (100IP) with an ERA of 2.90 in the playoffs.
October 17th, 2010 at 9:05 am
Add +1 to CC Sabathia, that ALCS Game netted him a huge 29 GSc. Could that be the least ever in a playoff game for the win?
October 18th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Matt, I'm guessing you're not from the NY area. There's nothing underrated about Pettitte's playoff career. It's completely overrated because everyone remembers the good games you mentioned but no one ever, ever acknowledges all the stinkers he's produced. It's as if only the good games happened.